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Prediction of changes in landscape and biodiversity development as important factors in maintaining the current state of forest ecosystems
Cudlín, Ondřej ; Pechanec, V. ; Purkyt, Jan ; Štěrbová, Lenka ; Holá, Š. ; Cienciala, E. ; Cudlín, Pavel
We used a combination of several analytical tools to analyse change and predict the land use, carbon storage and biodiversity assessment in the cultural landscape. First, the GIS layer, consisted of Habitat mapping (NCA CR 2014) for 138 natural and close to nature habitats and Corine LC for 54 more anthropically influenced habitats, was created. The Land Change Modeler (scenario type - business as usual, pixel resolution 500 m) was used to predict the development of land cover on the basis of data comparison in several historical periods (Corine LC from 1990, 2000, 2006, 2012). We also did prediction of carbon storage under climate change in model InVEST 3.0 – carbon. Changes in carbon storage were calculated from four carbon pools: above-ground biomass, below-ground biomass, necromass and soil organic carbon. To assess and predict the changes in biodiversity in the \nforest-agriculture landscape we used the model GLOBIO 3, which works with five basic driving forces for biodiversity loss: land use, infrastructure, fragmentation of territory, atmospheric nitrogen deposition and climate change. Last used model Marxan enables us to select up to now unprotected areas with a high degree of biodiversity and naturalness of habitats for environmentally friendly agriculture and forestry management.\n
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